Jan 2024 · Red Sea
+312% Asia-EU freight
Containers rerouted via Cape of Good Hope. Those who'd mapped exposure on critical routes repriced in 4 weeks. Others took quarters.
Geopolitical Cost Predictor · Beta
Your business costsreact to geopolitics.
Quantitative scenarios on your business costs from conflicts, energy markets and currency moves · every Monday morning.
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Interactive demo · no login
COSMO · Diesel · Industrial · 12-week forecastPRO PREVIEW · REAL DATA
Don't have the numbers handy? Start from your sector
· archived on · Mon 13 Jul
Diesel · Industrial
+3.6% base · 4 weeks
base scenario · Partial signal confidence · Pressure 30/100 · LOW
€/month
Sources used by the engine
EU Oil Bulletin · €/L retail Italy
Alpha Vantage · Brent crude USD/bbl
ACLED + GDELT · conflicts on routes
Average figure for Italian manufacturing · enter your spend above to personalise.
Variazione % sul prezzo
Base 0–4 settStress 4–8Shock 8–12
Week of 6 Jul
- Diesel-2.7%WoW
- Electricity+3.2%WoW
- TTF gas+3.3%WoW
- EUR/USD-0.2%WoW
- EUR/CNY-0.3%WoW
- Freight-5.3%WoW
- Diesel-2.7%WoW
- Electricity+3.2%WoW
- TTF gas+3.3%WoW
- EUR/USD-0.2%WoW
- EUR/CNY-0.3%WoW
- Freight-5.3%WoW
Who uses it
Three roles, one tool
COSMO is built for those responsible for variable business costs. Direct voices from people who'd use it.
CFO · I have to defend the forecast to the board
«Monday morning I see if my energy exposure is worse than plan. If the base scenario says +€4,200/month on Q3, I have 8 weeks to renegotiate or hedge. Concrete decisions, not sentiment.»
What it unlocks for you
12-week scenarios · data export · numbers in € on your spend
Procurement Manager · I'm about to sign a supplier contract
«Before closing a 12-month deal with a foreign supplier, I want to know if EUR/CNY or TTF gas is going against me. The alert pings me when I cross the thresholds I set on the items that weigh most.»
What it unlocks for you
Email alerts on thresholds · origin monitoring · Pressure Index
Logistics Manager · I plan diesel and freight every week
«Diesel and freight are my two critical variables. I need data that goes into the TMS without copy-paste. The REST API does it, and the founder helps me map critical routes during onboarding.»
What it unlocks for you
REST API · diesel + freight variables · 1:1 onboarding
How it works
From geopolitics to your business costs
Three steps to turn geopolitical news into quantitative forecasts that inform your budget.
Connect your cost items
Select the variables relevant to your business: diesel, gas, electricity, raw materials, currencies, transport costs.
The engine integrates 9 official institutional sources
European Central Bank, World Bank, EU Commission, ENTSO-E. Updated every Monday at 06:00 UTC.
See all sources
- ACLED + GDELT · armed conflict events (250+ countries)
- EU Weekly Oil Bulletin · Italian retail diesel (€/L, weekly, 21+ years history)
- ENTSO-E Transparency · Italian electricity PUN (7 bidding zones weighted)
- World Bank Pink Sheet · EU natural gas (TTF, monthly)
- ECB SDW · euro FX (primary source, daily 1999→)
- Open Exchange Rates · real-time FX (170+ currencies)
- Alpha Vantage · Brent crude (futures, weekly)
- IMF Industrial Inputs Index · industrial commodities via FRED
Receive forecasts + threshold alerts
Every Monday: 3 scenarios (Base, Stress, Shock) per variable. Instant email alert when a threshold you've set is crossed.
The cost of inaction
Those who don't see the surge coming pass it downstream. Or absorb it..
Variable costs don't wait for your plans. Three recent shock examples that anyone with a forecasting system saw coming before competitors.
Oct 2023 · TTF Gas
+78% in 6 weeks
Israel-Iran geopolitical lockdown. TTF jumped from 35 to 62 €/MWh before mainstream macro signals hit the news.
Apr 2025 · Italy diesel
+18% retail in 8 weeks
EU refinery squeeze + Brent risk premium. Companies with flat-price contracts absorbed everything. Hedged ones kept margins.
Live · Strait of Hormuz
+37% Brent → €90/bbl
Since 28 February the de facto closure of the strait pushed Brent to 138$/bbl at peak. Today it sits above baseline (€65.5) and the spike trickles down to Italian diesel and fuel. Companies tracking fuel contracts week by week have already renegotiated; those who don't, absorb it on the invoice.
Open the report · 4 cost lines + 3 consequences for Italian SMEsSnapshot of 4 Jun · weekly data brief
Costs up · since Feb 28
Brent crudeToday: €90/bbl · $97€65.5/bbl · $70.8+37%
Natural gas TTFToday: €48.76/MWh€33/MWh+48%
Freight Asia→MediterraneanToday: $5.400–6.200/FEU$4.100/FEU+32 / +51%
Freight Asia→North EuropeToday: $4.000–4.800/FEU$2.600/FEU+54 / +85%
April 2026 Brent average: 117$/bbl, the highest monthly level since June 2022 (Russian invasion of Ukraine). Source: EIA STEO.
Difference vs the live ticker on top: the ticker shows the week-over-week move on the Italian downstream market (retail diesel). This card shows the cumulative move on global upstream Brent vs the pre-conflict baseline. Same cron, two complementary lenses.
What it means for Italian SMEs
- 01Power costs: TTF drives roughly 65% of Italian PUN. The +48% already hits spot-contract bills, and lands on Q3-Q4 fixed-price renewals.
- 02Fuels: diesel contracts up for renewal in Q3 at elevated premiums. Pressure on the Italian downstream market stays structural while Brent holds above $90/bbl.
- 03Asia imports: Cape vs Suez routing adds 16 days transit, June GRI surcharges +35-51%. For component imports, the cumulative impact is material over the next 8-12 weeks.
EU gas storage at 38% · below 5-year average of 41%. Europe buys spot in competition with Asia, keeping TTF structurally elevated through winter.
June 4 is not the end. It's the current level of a pressure that keeps evolving week after week. The question is no longer whether Q3 contracts will be hit. It's how much advance notice you'll have.
Every week of lead time is margin. Every shock absorbed is a client lost to whoever was prepared.
COSMO doesn't predict the future. It turns public signals into weekly quantitative projections on your costs, before they show up on invoices.
See COSMO plans →Data sources
Verifiable data, not opinions
Cost variables are built on open official institutional sources · not sentiment or news. EU-native stack to reflect the market you actually pay.
EU-native sources · Updated every Monday · Official open dataSources cited on every forecast
Methodology
The sources are open.The model isn't.
Anyone can read Brent or ENTSO-E. COSMO translates those signals into real euros on your business spend.
Public data
What everyone sees on public dashboards
Brent crude · May 12
82.41$/bbl+2.1%
And now what? How does it weigh for you, on the fleet you have, on the diesel you burn each month? The number alone doesn't answer.
Input · without company context
COSMO · engine
The same signal, calibrated to your spend
Brent · WoW delta+2.1%
× diesel weight in spend62%
× fleet volume1.4k L/wk
Estimated impact · 4 weeks
+€842/month
± 14% confidence band · base scenario
Output · in € on your spend
Not sentiment, not news.
Just metrics calibrated on Italian manufacturing.
Simple pricing
Start free. Unlock when you need it.
No card needed to start. PRO with 14-day trial, cancel anytime.
Free
€0
forever, no expiry
- 3 monitored variables
- Base scenario forecasts
- Weekly historical dashboard
- Weekly email digest
Pro · Monthly
€99/month+VAT
169 days · early price €99 until December 31
14 days free, then cancel anytime
Maximum flexibility
- 7 variables + custom
- Stress & Shock scenarios (12 wks)
- Email alerts on custom thresholds
- Pressure Index + cited sources
- PNG card export
- Unlimited geopolitical scenarios
Best Value
Pro · Annual
€990/year+VAT
= €82,50/month · 2 months free
Save €198 vs monthly
- 7 variables + custom
- Stress & Shock scenarios (12 wks)
- Email alerts on custom thresholds
- Pressure Index + cited sources
- PNG card export
- Unlimited geopolitical scenarios
Business·From €299/month +VAT · sales-led
Intelligence for your supply chain
For teams running complex supply chains with multiple suppliers, distinct internal roles and ERP/BI systems to feed.
- Everything in Pro included
- 1:1 onboarding with the founder on your supply chain
- € breakdown per supplier and category
- Multi-user with roles (procurement · finance · IT)
- REST API for ERP and BI integration
- Dedicated account manager · priority response
Compare all plan details
| Funzione | Free€0 | Pro€99/mese +IVA |
|---|---|---|
| Dati | ||
| Variabili monitorate | 3 | 7 |
| Orizzonte previsione | 4 settimane | 12 settimane |
| Storico previsioni | 6 mesi | |
| Aggiornamento | Settimanale | Settimanale |
| Pressure index visibile | ||
| Citazione fonti | ||
| Fornitori | ||
| Profilo fornitori | 0 | 10 |
| Scenari | ||
| Scenario Base | ||
| Scenario Stress | ||
| Scenario Shock | ||
| Scenari custom | 3 | Illimitati |
| Impatto € | ||
| Prezzo/litro gasolio | ||
| kWh e m³ da contratto | ||
| Grafico costi aggregati | ||
| Alert | ||
| Alert email soglia | Personalizzabile | |
| Export | ||
| Report PDF mensile | 1 pagina | |
| Share card PNG | ||
| Accesso | ||
| Utenti per account | 1 | 1 |
| Supporto | ||
| Supporto | Community | Email 48h |
All plans include data encryption · Secure payments via Stripe · Cancel anytime
Next forecast · Monday 20 July · 8 AM CET
In 3 days your costs
will have a forecast.
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