Cosmo Signal
Geopolitics and business costs · founders phase, 10 companies at most

You find the price rise on the bill. By then it is already spent.

Every Monday Cosmo Signal tells you what is already set on your costs and how much gas, electricity, diesel, transport and FX can weigh, in euros on your spend. So the rise lands in your budget before it lands on your invoice.

No payment before the call · refund within 30 days · €69 a month, VAT excluded
On the call you'll find me: Ismaele, the founder. In 20 minutes we map your cost lines; if you join, the first overview arrives the following Monday.
Try it on your spend · no sign-in

With your spend: in half of the cases since 2017, a quarter of wholesale gas moved the bill of the following 12 months between

−⁠€6,084 and +⁠€7,203
19 cases out of 20 stay below+⁠€26,635
consumption band of your spend (Eurostat I2) · indexed contract · the same calculation as the dashboardHow gas moves ↓
Snapshot of 12/10Measured, with the date of every figure. Updated every Monday.
Diesel at the pump2.273 €/l−3.3% · EU Bulletin 05/10
Diesel · market1.241 €/l−5.9 points of the pump price change · 05/10
Diesel excise622.90 €/1000L+50 · official 05/10
ARERA charges, gas and powerfixeduntil 31/12 · ARERA
EUR/USD1.1259FRED 02/10
Next overviewMonday 19/10every Monday, by email too
Who uses it

Three roles, one Monday question: what changes on my costs?

CFOI have to defend the budget.How much to budget for energy and fuel, and how to explain it to management.
What you getwhat is already decided and how much the rest can weigh, in eurosthe Monday PDF to forward to management
Gas and electricity ↓
PurchasingI'm about to sign a contract.Fixed or indexed at renewal, the increase your haulier asks for, a supplier paid in dollars or yuan.
What you getthe fixed-price end date 90 days aheadwhat a bad week on the exchange rate is worth
Transport and FX ↓
LogisticsI plan diesel and transport.Refuel this week or next, and whether a route's rate is in line with costs.
What you getthe one-week diesel forecastthe cost of every route and how much of it is diesel
Diesel ↓
What weighs on you most?
We take you there, and it's already selected when you book.
Crises, tensions, routes · why now

Nobody knows when the next crisis will come. You can know what it would cost you.

Conflicts, sanctions, closed routes: you read about them every day. Cosmo doesn't sell you a forecast of what's coming. It gives you the real history of prices, with dates, and what it would weigh on your spend today.

Strait of Hormuz · March 2026+18%diesel at the pump, in Italy, in two weeks
02/03 · 1.72116/03 · 2.03313/04 · 2.15328/09 · 2.351
19/03: excise −200 €/1000L · EU Bulletin, Monday prices
01
Diesel at the pump1.721 → 2.153 (13/04) → 2.351 (28/09, high) → 2.273 €/l (05/10) · +32% since early March
02
Market part, before tax0.738 → 1.292 (13/04) → 1.354 (28/09) → 1.241 €/l (05/10) · +68% since early March
03
Diesel excise€200/1000L cut on 19/03, then 5 more changes · €622.90/1000L since 05/10
04
On €50,000 a year of diesel (example)+32% is worth about +€16,000 a year, for the same litres
In weeks like these, every Monday Cosmo tells you: the diesel direction for the following week, every excise change in euros on your spend, and whether your haulier's increase is in line with costs.
EU Oil Bulletin · Monday prices · excise from the official sheet
Wholesale gas (TTF) · the three largest 12-month moves since 2017
Jul 2020 → Jul 2021
+642%
Aug 2021 → Aug 2022
+432%
Feb 2024 → Feb 2025
+97%
separate moves, no overlaps · IMF and Fed (FRED), converted to euros · it happened, it is not a forecast

Only part of these moves reaches a company's bill, partly months later. How much reaches yours, we tell you in euros.

In the dashboard · Context
Tension in your suppliers' areas, compared with their own average. We show it as context, not as a number on your costs: in our data it doesn't reliably anticipate prices. We measured it.
How it works

Twenty minutes with the founder, then Monday morning.

01
A call with the founder

Together we map your cost lines: suppliers' countries, gas and electricity contracts, spend.

02
Every Monday, the snapshot

What is already set, what moved, what needs a choice. In the dashboard, in an email and in a PDF to forward to management.

03
Decide, and see if it helped

You record what you did. Once the period is over, we count what the decision was worth, even when the direction was wrong.

Why Monday

Weeks pass between a price moving and the invoice. Those are the weeks when you can still decide.

  1. The price moves
    market, ruling, excise duty
  2. Monday: you see it
    in euros on your spend, with the date of the source
  3. time to decide: budget, renewal, refuelling, negotiation
  4. The invoice arrives
    weeks or months later: without Cosmo, this is where you find out
The latest Monday overview · live data

First what is already decided, then what asks you for a choice, then how much your cost lines can weigh. In the dashboard, by email and as a PDF.

This week · 12/10 → 18/10snapshot of 12/10
Settled facts
Gas and electricity system charges unchanged until 31/12 · diesel excise 622.90 €/1000L since 05/10
Diesel, next 4 weeks: fallingforecast
Natural gas−⁠€6,084 … +⁠€7,203
half of the cases, on the bill over a year
FX±⁠€1,292
in a typical week, on €200,000
Electricity−12.5% … +19.8%
wholesale over 3 months, half of the cases
sample company with €50,000 of gas a year and €200,000 in dollars · overview of 12/10, updated every Monday
Gas and electricity contracts

Fixed or indexed? At renewal you sign without knowing how much you're risking.

We show you how much gas and electricity have moved since 2017, in euros on your bill: the middle half of cases and the extreme case. It is measured history, not a forecast. And we remind you 90 days before your fixed price ends. We don't sell energy or contracts.

Natural gas · on your bill, in the 12 months after a quarter of the market
−⁠€6,084+⁠€7,203
half of cases+⁠€26,63519 cases out of 20 stay below
on the spend entered above · consumption band of your spend (Eurostat I2) · indexed contract · since 2017
First, the settled facts. ARERA system charges, fixed until the end of the quarter.
Then the market. How much it really moved, on your spend and with your contract.
Fixed price expiring. The reminder arrives 90 days before, so you have time to compare offers.
Transport

Your carrier asks for an increase. Do you know how much is justified?

We break down the cost of every road route: how much is diesel, how much is excise duty, and how much of the increase the costs don't explain. We suggest the routes from your suppliers' countries; you confirm them.

SofiaVerona
1,274 km4 trips a monthroad
diesel 43%
the rest of the route's cost
The increase you're asked for, against the costs:
in lineabovebelow
test route confirmed in Cosmo, 08/10
FX

Do you pay in dollars or yuan? Know what a bad week is worth.

We don't forecast exchange rates: there is no predictable direction. We tell you how much they move on your money, and you choose the threshold above which we flag it on Monday.

Dollars · on €200,000
a typical week±⁠€1,292
the worst of the last 52 weeks€3,654
data of 02/10 · FRED
Diesel

33.4% of every litre, excluding VAT, is excise already set. On the rest, every Monday, the direction for the following week.

The excise is already set: we give it to you as a fact, with the date of the act. On the market price we make a forecast: next week's direction, checked every week against the real price. Figures exclude VAT, as a company that deducts it sees them.

A litre, excluding VAT · 05/10
market · we forecast it1.241 € · 66.6%
excise · set0.623 €
VAT 22% (0.410 € per litre) left out: a company that deducts it doesn't bear it as a cost. At the pump, with VAT, a litre costs 2.273 €.EU Oil Bulletin, data of 05/10
Forecast · next 4 weeks
falling
From 19/10 the direction covers the following week: refuel this week or next. It arrives on Monday, with how the previous one went.
overview of 12/10, the last one at 4 weeks
When an excise duty changes, we tell you what it's worth on your spend over the year.
The first live accuracy figure comes out on 30 November. We publish it whatever it says, with the comparison.
Do you recover excise as a haulier? For you, excise increases are a cash advance: the euro figure doesn't tell them apart.
How to read the numbers

The sources are open. The maths on your spend is ours.

Anyone can read the EU Oil Bulletin or an ARERA ruling. How much they weigh on your costs, with your spend and your contract, no source tells you.

What we can do, and what we can't

We tell you what kind of number you're reading.

Settled facts
ARERA charges, excise duties, VAT: facts, with the date of the act.
Forecast, on diesel only
Next week's direction, where we have measured it.
How much it moved
Gas and electricity: the middle half of cases and the extreme case since 2017. History, not a forecast.
What a move is worth
Exchange rates: in euros on your exposure. No direction.

When data is missing or late, we say so.

Official sources, each data point dated
EU Oil Bulletindiesel at the pump and before tax, excise · every week
Official Gazetteacts on fuels
ARERAgas and electricity system charges, quarter by quarter
IMF and Fed, via FREDEuropean gas price (TTF), converted to euros · monthly
ENTSO-E · Eurostatwholesale electricity · prices by consumption band
Federal Reserve H.10, via FREDexchange rates: dollars and yuan
GDELTtension by area, on the Context page
Ismaele Michelotti, founder of Cosmo Signal
Who answers

Ismaele Michelotti, founder of Cosmo.

In March, with tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, diesel at the pump went from €1.721 to €2.033 a litre in two weeks. A fuel budget set in February no longer held in March, and anyone who hadn't allowed for it found out on the invoice. I wondered whether you could know earlier, in euros, on your own spend. Cosmo grew out of that question.

Working on it I learned something uncomfortable: how much a crisis will move prices, nobody can reliably say in advance. I measured it. What you can do is know every Monday what is already decided and how much it can weigh on your spend. That's what Cosmo does.

In this phase I take every call myself: twenty minutes to see whether Cosmo is useful to you, and if it isn't, I'll tell you. We do the setup together, on the phone or on Meet.

Founding price · 10 companies at most

One plan. The price stays put as long as you do.

at public launch €129 a month
€69a month
billed €207 a quarter, or €690 a year: two months free. VAT excluded

Every cost line in euros, up to 10 suppliers, the Monday email and PDF, the history of your decisions.

Book 20 minutes with the founder
More sites, more suppliers or integrations? Write to us.
You pay after the call
The first quarter, only if you decide to join.
Refund within 30 days
From the first charge, if Cosmo isn't useful to you. No questions asked.
Locked price
€69 for as long as your subscription continues, after public launch too.
We don't sell energy or contracts
We tell you how much is at risk, not whom to sign with.

Three questions before the call

“I already have an energy consultant or broker.”A broker offers you a contract. We tell you how much is at risk with what you have, diesel, transport and FX included.
“I don't have time for another dashboard.”On Monday you get an email, with a two-page PDF to forward to management. You open the dashboard when you need it.
“What happens to my data?”We need your spend lines to compute euros on your costs. We don't sell them or resell them aggregated. Delete the account and they're gone.
Next snapshot · Monday 19/10 · in 3 days
Put the next price rise in the budget, not on the invoice.
Book 20 minutes with the founder
Founders phase: 10 companies at most · €69 a month, excluding VAT